Emmy's 2010

Emmy day is upon us. And since I like to pretend I'm a TV critic, I figure I should do what all TV critics do - predict who I think will win and say who I think should win all the major awards. And because I'm just some dope with a computer doing all this for free for literally no audience, I'm also going to add a sentimental pick to win each category. (Here's a hint: if Lost is involved, that's what I'm picking). So let's get cracking.

Supporting Actor, Comedy
Who Will Win: Ty Burrell, Modern Family
Who Should Win: Ty Burrell
Sentimental Favorite: Neil Patrick Harris, How I Met Your Mother

Along with Glee, Modern Family was the breakout hit of last season, drama or comedy. Its large, talented cast killed it almost every week, but out of the male roles I thought three characters stood out the most - Phil, Cameron and Manny. Manny isn't nominated, so I think it comes down to Burrell's Phil and Eric Stonestreet's Cam. It's a tough choice, but I've got to go with Burrell. He was the focus of more episodes, and although apparently he didn't pick his strongest episode to submit to the Academy (it should have been the Valentines Day one where he tells Claire he's "smooth all over"), I still think that will be enough to carry him to a well-deserved victory.

As for my sentimental pick, NPH has been robbed in this category three years running. He's been the funniest character on HIMYM since it started and this year was no different. Even through some inconsistent material this season, he still delivered some great lines and carried the show through some episodes that otherwise wouldn't have been very funny at all (Lily's birthday episode about the group pictures, I'm looking at you). Last year was probably his best chance, with the enthusiasm for Jeremy Piven thankfully dying out and a generally weak field, but somehow he still lost to Jon Freakin' Cryer. Even if this wasn't his best season, I'd still like to see NPH take home a trophy.

Supporting Actress, Comedy
Who Will Win: Jane Lynch, Glee
Who Should Win: Sofia Vergara, Modern Family
Sentimental Favorite: Sofia Vergara or Julie Bowen, Modern Family

I hate Glee. I really, really hate it. I've seen just two scenes of the show, but they were enough to condition me to gag at the very sight of it the way I do with cheesecake after it gave me food poisoning. In the first scene, a homosexual kid who was apparently having some problems with his father over his sexuality was playing kicker for the football team. So he lines up to kick the game winning field goal with his father watching in the stands, and, after the ball is snapped, he does a complicated dance that takes at least five seconds before putting the ball through the uprights. And now is dad is proud of him and their relationship is saved. Or at least that's what I gathered from it. Gag. What a preposterous turn of events. In the second, character in a wheelchair rejected somebody because they were trying to fit in with the glees by pretending to have a stutter. Gag again. But as I said before, Glee was the other breakout show of the fall, and the face of that show is Jane Lynch who plays the glees' enemy Sue Sylvester. I guess she does a bang-up job, and she's the obvious pick to win. And because she's the enemy of the glees, I have no problem with this. I'd like to see Sofia Vergara, who plays the hilarious spicy Latina trophy wife on Modern Family. The way she handles the problems of youth of her oddly (and hilariously) adult-like son Manny and the cranky complaints of her husband Jay are funny enough. Throw in her Spanish accent that she has no problem using for brilliant comedic effect, and I want her to win and think she should. But if it has to be someone else, I'd have to go with Julie Bowen. After all, she was at one point married to Dr. Jack Shephard.

Lead Actor, Comedy
Who Will Win: Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock
Who Should Win: Larry David, Curb Your Enthusiasm
Sentimental Favorite: Steve Carell, The Office

Baldwin has won this award two years in a row, and in a field that isn't particularly strong, I don't see why he won't win it again. Still, I think Larry David was funnier. He completely carries Curb, and this year he carried it to a really high level once again. Unless he was on screen with the Seinfeld people or Leon, he was probably far and away the funniest guy on screen. Everyone else is just there to make him look more and more insane. Since he carried the heaviest workload, I think he should take home his first acting Emmy. Steve Carell is my easy choice for a sentimental pick. Much like NPH, it's a crime that he hasn't won this award before, but again, this wasn't the strongest year for him or his show. I think next year, which will be his last on The Office, will probably be his year, but I wouldn't mind seeing it come early.

Lead Actress, Comedy
Who Will Win: Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie
Who Should Win: Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation
Sentimental Favorite: Amy Poehler

I don't care if Nurse Jackie is a half-hour long, it's not a comedy. I don't watch that show, but I've never heard anyone describe it as "funny". But because of her past Emmy history and because the Academy likes to see comedy actors handling serious material (huh?), Falco will probably take this one home. But it should be Poehler. Parks and Recreation definitely should have cracked an underwhelming Comedy Series category this year, but because it didn't, I don't like Poehler's chances. But she turned that show (with some help) from borderline unwatchable to a surprising hit last year and deserves most of the credit. She's the lead, and if she's bad, the show's going to be bad. But she was excellent. I'm sure last year's winner Toni Collette was fine and I'm sure all the Gleeks love the actress from Glee, but Amy deserves this one.

Best Comedy Series
Who Will Win: Modern Family
Who Should Win: Modern Family
Sentimental Favorite: Modern Family

This show was just plain great all season. Every single character - and there are a lot of them - had there moments of greatness. From Phil on a date to Cam eating spicy food to Manny apologizing for his wrinkled shirt to Luke making his weird Luke noise to Claire embarrassing Alex in front of her friends, it was just one hilarious bit after another. There isn't a comedy out there that I'm more excited for this season. I just hope they can keep the momentum going.

Supporting Actor, Drama
Who Will Win: Terry O'Quinn, Lost
Who Should Win: Terry O'Quinn
Sentimental Favorite: O'Quinn or Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad

When shows go off the air after a long run and a great deal of success, people like to think the Academy likes to reward them with an award or two on Emmy night. I have no idea if that's true (it wasn't the case for The Wire), but shows like The Sopranos and Friends took home lots of awards following their final season. Lost is the prime candidate for such treatment this year. I have less confidence that it'll earn some of the other awards it's up for (hold on, I'll get to them), but between O'Quinn and Michael Emerson, I'm extremely confident it will take home the Supporting Actor trophy. And deservingly so. O'Quinn absolutely nailed almost every scene this year, even as he had to bounce back and forth between the mysteriously malevolent Man in Black and the tormented but soft-hearted John Locke. He had an expression as the MIB in the premiere that makes my spine cold every time is see it. And in the very same episode he flashes this smile to Jack that warms my heart. This guy is a freaking master. There are two other actors that I wouldn't be completely devastated to see win. The first is Emerson, but that's only because he's on Lost. He was really good this year, but I guess I hold it against him that I don't think he's as strong as he was earlier in the series. (I'll always say he should have won instead of O'Quinn in 2007 but O'Quinn should have won instead of Emerson in 2009.) The other would be Aaron Paul from Breaking Bad. The way he portrayed Jesse's struggle to kick drugs, his deep-seeded lack of confidence in himself and his loosening grip trying to prevent himself from falling into a life as a murderer was gut wrenching to watch. If this award doesn't go to someone from Lost, I hope it goes to Paul.

Supporting Actress, Drama
Who Will Win: Archie Panjabi, The Good Wife
Who Should Win: Elizabeth Moss, Mad Men
Sentimental Favorite: Elizabeth Moss

I've got to be honest, out of the actresses nominated here, the only ones I watch are Moss and Christina Hendricks on Mad Men. But I hear that Panjabi is excellent on The Good Wife and I've heard her name bouncing around a lot, so she's my pick to win. I'd really like to see Elizabeth Moss take this one home, though. Last year she was up for lead actress and she has all the talent in the world to carry that kind of workload, so as a Supporting Actress nominee, I think her work this year stands up even better. I love how she's handled Peggy's transformation from an ugly, scared receptionist to a confident, ambitious copywriter who's ready to take on the world. She's still a little intimidated by Don but she's not afraid to stand up to him when she needs to. She wants to find a husband but still likes to have some fun as a single girl. She comes from a conservative Catholic family but she's plenty comfortable mixing it up in the liberal Sixties counterculture. It's a testament to Moss's acting that she made this incredible transformation so believable.

Best Actor, Drama
Who Will Win: Jon Hamm, Mad Men
Who Should Win: Matthew Fox, Lost
Sentimental Favorite: Matthew Fox

Of all the categories, this is the one with which I'm the most well versed. I watch all these shows but House, and admire the work of all these actors tremendously. Cranston is incredible in his portrayal of the morally bankrupt Walter White. Every wrinkle on his face expresses the pain that churns deep in Walter's soul as he falls further and further into his own abyss of misery. Jon Hamm does more with the silences between his lines than any other actor I've ever seen. The mix of shame and relief he showed after Betty discovered his "Dick Whitman box" was incredibly moving. Michael C Hall, the favorite, turns a murderous monster like Dexter into one of the most likable and funny characters on television. It's a testament to his abilities as an actor that he can convince the audience that a person who kills people on a regular basis is actually more good than bad. Kyle Chandler has created a character in Coach Eric Taylor that is inspirational but abrasive, loving but stubborn, all at the same time. His expressions when he's dealing with Connie, especially when he knows that she has him by the short ones, crack me up more than any of the other actors on this list. But it was Matthew Fox who stood above the rest in this very accomplished group of actors. He took Jack Shephard to a new level of greatness this season, portraying Jack as he accepted his destiny on the Island, his purpose in life and, finally, his own death. The anger as he smashed Jacob's mirror, the defiance as he stared down a lit stick of dynamite, the pure joy as he saved the Island, the sadness and comfort as he embraced his father in the church, all moments of brilliance that run through the gambit of emotions and he nailed every single one of them. I tear up just thinking about it. The material demanded an extraordinary performance and he delivered 100%. After 6 seasons of excellent work as the star of the best show on TV, hopefully the man who portrayed my favorite character on my favorite show finally gets the credit he deserves.

Lead Actress, Drama
Who Will Win: Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife
Who Should Win: Connie Britton, Friday Night Lights
Sentimental Favorite: Connie Britton

Everyone thinks Margulies is going to win, and who am I to argue? Like with Supporting Actress, I am only familiar with the work of two of the nominees, Britton and January Jones. I haven't heard much for the chances of either of them to win, so I'll jus predict that the favorite will take home the trophy. But I think that would be a shame, because Connie Britton does an amazing job as Tami Taylor on Friday Night Lights. She's tough, she's hot, and she doesn't mind mixing it up in the boys club of Texas high school football. Her relationship with Coach Taylor seems so real, and I love every scene they have together. She's one of my favorite characters on that show and she's probably my favorite female character on TV. I'll give her the nod. Oh, and January Jones stinks. Or at least Betty Drapers stinks. I don't know about her acting. I go back and forth between thinking she's good and thinking she's bad. I don't think that's a good sign.

Best Drama Series
Who Will Win: Breaking Bad
Who Should Win: Lost
Sentimental Favorite: Lost

Wouldn't it be a nice storybook sendoff if Lost were to win Best Drama in its last season for the first time since winning the award in its first season? It'd be very Lost-esque, that's for sure. I don't know about True Blood and The Good Wife (although from what I've seen, neither seems on par with the other four in this category), but the rest of these shows were great this year. Dexter turned in its best season since its first. Breaking Bad took its level of suspense to a whole new stratosphere while not forgetting about the gut-wrenching character moments it does so well. And Mad Men, while maybe not as consistent as the first two seasons, still had enough great moments to be plenty deserving of a nomination here. But Lost capped off it's run with a season that never let up, answering a lot of the pressing mysteries and resolving series-long character arcs as the plot moved full-steam ahead toward a gripping and ultimately extremely satisfying conclusion. The degree of difficulty was high, but Lost absolutely nailed it. If I had to rank the four, I'd put Mad Men on the bottom, then Dexter, then Breaking Bad, and Lost at the top. You just can't beat a season where we find out what the Smoke Monster is, we get Richard Alpert's back-story, we finally get a look at the Temple, Hurley becomes the new Jacob and Jack finally has his face-to-face with his father. I really hope it wins.

We'll find out in a few hours.

Mad Men, "The Rejected"

This season has been tragically short on Pete Campbell, but "The Rejected" solved that in a big way. At the new firm, Pete may be a partner, but his name isn't in the lobby just yet. That means he still has to answer to Don and Roger and Lane, so when Fred lands a more valuable account that conflicts with Clearasil, he's ordered to break things off with that company. Well, the point man from that account just happens to be his father-in-law, and when the two sit down for a drink so Pete can break the news, Trudy's dad can't help but break some exciting news: Trudy's pregnant!

The Pete Campbell of the past might have come off as kind of a weasel, but that was only because he was trying to grab at power he had no business possessing. But now, he's a bit of a big shot, so his shrewd business sense doesn't seem so underhanded. It's welcomed. So before he sits down to a lovely pot roast dinner with the in-laws, he leverages his father-in-law's future grandchild to pull in the entire Vick's line (sans Clearasil) for Sterling Cooper Draper Price. And when Trudy's dad calls him a son of a bitch, he's tough enough to just shrug it off.

There hasn't been nearly enough Peggy for my liking this season either, so her move to the forefront this week was certainly welcomed. Peggy, both in the workplace and in her personal life, represents the changing times of the '60s. She's an ambitious copywriter instead of a secretary. She enjoys the benefits of single life instead of just setting her sights on finding a husband (even though she obviously does want to marry eventually, as evidenced by the way she played with Faye's ring and her reaction to Trudy's pregnancy). So naturally Peggy would be the one to give us our first glimpse of the counterculture (outside of Paul, Paul's beard and his freedom-riding girlfriend) that will dominate the decade. She goes to some hippie party filled with strange videos, lesbians and marijuana and feels perfectly at home. She meets some people that see the way more like she does and gets a chance to interact with people who won't just assume that she slept with her boss because she's a woman in a man's business. I really love it whenever Peggy shows her confidence in herself, and her rather smooth rejection of her lesbian friend's advances, coupled with the "He doesn't own your vagina," "No, but he's renting it," exchange gave her the chance to show off plenty of that.

I always knew we would eventually dive into the counterculture of the '60s, but I never knew when. We finally got a good look at it here, and it was like finally getting a glimpse into the world of The Others on "Lost". You just know it's going to be a big part of the show moving forward, and it's exciting to see it poke through. I definitely don't see Peggy becoming some pot-smoking hippy, but I'm sure she will use her experience with that movement to make her an even more valuable and indispensable part of the SCDP creative team.

Loved the last scene where Peggy and Pete stare at each other through the glass doors, each now running in there own, very different, circles. They're both on their way up, but for how long? The "changing of the guard" has always been a implicit theme of the show that's hung like a guillotine over many of the characters heads. Maybe my conclusion is ill-informed due to my lack of familiarity with the '60s, but I get the sense that while both Peggy and Pete are enjoying tremendous success at the moment, Peggy finds herself on the "winning" team that will come to define her generation as Pete masters the world world of the old guard. Sure, for a while the clients Pete needs to schmooze will be old, pre-WWII white men, but ten or twenty years from now, will that still be the case? And can Pete adapt to that new world? Obviously the series isn't going to take us that far down the road, but come 1970, I wouldn't be surprised to see Pete's life on the decline as his "old money" crowd goes by the wayside.

There wasn't as much Don in this one (especially compared to the first three episodes of this season), but he made his presence know by delivering the defining line of the episode with his statement that past behavior doesn't necessarily predict future behavior indicates that he really does want to change who he is. The question is now, who is it that he wants to become? Is it that old, cranky husband? Roger Sterling? Something completely different? The driving force of his personal life, besides sleeping with every fine piece of tail in the New York metro area, was always to be a better father to his children than his pop was to him. That's why he married Betty: she could give him children and he thought should could be a good mother. She was basically a means to an end. But once Betty kicked him out and he no longer could hang his hat on the fact that he was always there with Sally and Bobby (and Gene), that dream pretty much flew out the window. So will Don try to start another family now that he's realized he can't keep going down this path of drunken despair? I wouldn't expect to see it anytime soon, but somewhere down the road (probably far down the road), I think we see a Don Draper with the wife, kids, living in the suburbs with a white picket fence, but this time he won't make the same mistakes that cost him his first family.